First off there's the lovely Mitsui Aika ^_^ She's currenty my Favourite Musume along with Eripon. Many people say Aika should graduate and that makes me so sad. She's injured, but as long as She and Tsuku think she's okay, I think she is :D Let's see...
Reasons for graduating:
1. Injury - Although she is recovering, she has week bones.
2. Lack of popularity
Reasons for not graduating:
1. I don't want her too D:
2. The age gap in MoMusu would widen between Haruna (17) and Reina and Sayumi (22). Aika is 19 so she's in the middle and makes everything less awkward.
Sayu and Reina are other Musumes I'd never want to graduate. Like Aika, they are part of the 9-nin line up (nine smile) that I first loved. (Although Miki + Yossie without JunLin Momusu was my first line up).
Reasons to graduate:
1. They're 22 and might be looking to go onto bigger things and start relationships in life.
Reasons not to graduate:
1. Besides Riho and a few others they bring out the Majority of sales now that Aichan and Gaki are leaving.
2. They (Mainly Reina) are main vocalists and characters in the group.
So Which one next?
If a 9ki or 10ki doesn't pull a Sakichii (=[ I miss you Sakichii) and decide she doesn't want to be an Idol (A perfectly reasonable decision, it's her choice and it can be stressful) or get involved in a scandal (Maybe Mizuki or Haruna) then one or two of these girls should graduate next.
I can see it being Aika because they might want to push the 'Last of the 6th generation' thing and make a lot of money.
I can see it being Reina/Sayu next so that they treat Aika as an older senpai and keep her on the sideline so they can focus on rebuilding the new young Morning Musume.
I can't see Reina or Sayu graduating with Aika next because it would be so odd like JunLunEri. The graduation was so Eri focused and I think Aika would be cut off. A Reina/Sayu graduation would be fair and more likely because of their bond.
I can't see a separate Reina or Sayu graduation because then there would be a graduation of a senpai in 2013, 2014 and 2015 which is too long (even though I hate to say it). The girls ought to be leaving soon. One single and one double graduation.
I really can't decide on who it'll probably be, but I see a Reina/Sayu graduation. It could be before or After Aika's graduation.
-MayaChan-
